China weighs use of nuclear weapons in space

By Bill Gertz
Chinese military researchers are examining the use of nuclear blasts in space against large numbers of targets such as Starlink satellite swarms, according to a new report by an Air Force think tank. China’s development of an orbiting nuclear strike weapon is also designed to target all 50 U.S. states, the June 3 report by the China Aerospace Studies Institute reveals.

The 13-page report provides new details of Chinese space warfare capabilities, including the orbiting hypersonic missile, roving “proximity” satellites that can crush satellites, and advanced cyberattacks on satellite control networks.

“The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has rapidly advanced in the space domain on several fronts simultaneously,” the report states, quoting a warning from Gen. Stephen Whiting, U.S. Space Command commander, that Beijing’s space weapons buildup is moving “breathtakingly fast.”

The Chinese military has already deployed a space plane similar to the Air Force’s X-37B spacecraft that has put into orbit several smaller satellites during recent missions.

The report notes recent reports indicating Russia also plans to deploy a nuclear weapon in space, just as China is considering nuclear blasts to counter large groups of small satellites. Both nuclear space weapons would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which bans weapons of mass destruction in space.

Chinese military researchers are seeking to disable systems such as the over 6,000 orbiting Starlink satellites — deployed by a subsidiary of entrepreneur Elon Musk’s company SpaceX — in a future conflict, the report said. Starlink satellites provide Wi-Fi connectivity to the internet from remote locations through ground terminals and is being used today by the Ukrainian military after Russian forces destroyed much of Kyiv’s military conventional communications networks.

The report said China’s military views the use of traditional missiles or other weapons against large numbers of small satellites as a “losing proposition.” Instead, the Chinese plans call for using a combination of “hard kill” and “soft kill” arms to incapacitate large groups of small satellites.

One Chinese military research paper from 2022 stated that a nuclear detonation in space could be used to disrupt satellite communication groups: “PRC researchers identified ways of modulating the shape and size of a nuclear radiological cloud in [low-Earth orbit] by adjusting detonation altitude and yield,” the report said. “PRC researchers and strategists are hard at work reconsidering the strategic environment of space considering new proliferated architectures and approaching the problem from a multi-dimensional and combined arms perspective.”

Other methods for disrupting satellite communications include cyberattacks against defense contractors and “technical infiltration” of ground stations.

The think tank report also reveals that China’s 2021 test of a fractional orbital bombardment system, or FOBS, used a hypersonic missile that launched a secondary missile, a possible indication the weapon can target moving ground or sea targets or may be armed with multiple, maneuverable warheads.

“The use of an orbital bombardment system could increase PLA power projection capabilities against bases and territories globally, including targets in the 50 states,” the report quotes a Chinese military paper as stating.

The report said the strange operational behavior observed in the 2021 FOBS test surprised U.S. analysts after the main hypersonic vehicle fired a “secondary munition.” The secondary weapon was possibly a defensive countermeasure, an air-to-air missile or something else traveling at hypersonic speed — faster than five times the speed of sound.

“This would be a capability no other nation has demonstrated or has claimed to be pursuing,” according to the report.

Chinese military researchers also are studying ways to use cyberattacks and electronic warfare to disrupt satellites. Military writings indicate that China is preparing to conduct disruptive cyberattacks against satellites by targeting onboard processors and memory units and exploiting vulnerabilities in VxWorks, a common operating system used by satellite operators. Five Chinese cyberwarfare units are dedicated to attacking space systems, the report said.

Indo-Pacific commander plans ‘hellscape’ for China’s military in Taiwan Strait
The new commander of the Hawaii-based Indo-Pacific Command is warning China’s military to expect a “hellscape” response to any potential military assault on Taiwan. Adm. Samuel Paparo said one scenario designed to dissuade the Chinese from invading is the creation of a network of U.S. and allied drones to swarm the Taiwan Strait that would prevent a rapid takeover of the self-ruled island China claims as its territory.

“They want to offer the world a short, sharp war so that it is a fait accompli before the world can get their act together,” Adm. Paparo told Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin. “My job is to ensure that between now and 2027 and beyond, the U.S. military and the allies are capable of prevailing.”

The four-star admiral said Chinese President Xi Jinping wants his military to be able to overwhelm Taiwan with a surprise attack across the Taiwan Strait and avoid a protracted conflict similar to the long-running war between Ukraine and Russia.

Adm. Paparo says the ‘hellscape” deterrence strategy involves deploying drone swarms as soon as a Chinese invasion force is detected moving across the 100-mile-wide waterway. The swarms would include unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned submarines and unmanned surface vessels that would buy time for U.S. and allied forces to intervene on behalf of Taiwan.

“I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” Adm. Paparo said. “So that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.” He declined to provide details, but said the strategy is “real and it’s deliverable.”

The concept appears to be part of what the Pentagon is calling its “Replicator” program, a $1 billion effort to deploy large numbers of armed unmanned weapons to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

“The region has got two choices” given the China challenge, Adm. Paparo said. “The first is that they can submit, and, as an end result, give up some of their freedoms. … Or they can arm to the teeth. Both cases have direct implications to the security, the freedom and the well-being of the citizens of the United States of America.”

The Chinese Communist Party-affiliated Global Times said Adm. Paparo’s comments followed Chinese war games around Taiwan meant as “punishment” for the election of the new Taiwan government of President Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing accuses of favoring independence for the island democracy. The outlet said the exercises showed China can strike “across all directions of the island without any blind spots,” frustrating any attempt to deploy a hellscape strategy.

“Washington is obsessed with the year 2027, when it believes the Chinese mainland will ‘invade’ Taiwan,” the Global Times said, adding that “if the ‘Taiwan independence’ forces sabotage peace in the Straits, then the U.S. must know that it needs to accept China’s way of handling it. Actually, that is its only option.”

Intelligence bill eyes commission on Havana syndrome
House lawmakers are proposing to create a commission to investigate debilitating brain-related injuries caused during incidents against U.S. government personnel posted abroad, known formally as anomalous health incidents. A section of the current House intelligence authorization bill now being debated would set up a National Security Commission on Anomalous Health Incidents.

The malady is suspected of being caused by some type of directed energy first detected against U.S. diplomats in Havana and thus became known as “Havana syndrome.” U.S. intelligence agencies have insisted that the incidents were not the result of hostile action, a claim that has angered victims who are convinced they have been targets of sonic weapons or other directed energy.

The American spy services concluded there is no indication that a hostile power is behind the incidents and blamed the brain injuries on unspecified environmental or personal mental problems.

The authorization language proposes that a new nine-member commission would be formed to comprehensively address the risks posed by the incidents and the U.S. government’s responses. The panel would also seek to determine the origin of the incidents, whether research indicates they were caused by “an external actor,” and the potential for “novel mechanisms” hostile states might use for such weapons against the United States.