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Feb. 12, 2025
Notes from the Pentagon

China fielding new strategic bombers

By Bill Gertz
China’s military has begun deploying significant numbers of upgraded strategic nuclear bombers that are bolstering Beijing’s triad of weapons, including land-based missiles and nuclear missile submarines, according to U.S. defense officials.

The new strategic bomber is an H-6N that was recently converted to a nuclear delivery system from less-capable bombers. The new bombers have increased the overall strategic threat posed by China’s rapidly expanding nuclear forces, said officials who provided a briefing on People’s Liberation Army air power.

“The H-6 November gives them the long lacking third leg of the nuclear triad,” one intelligence official said. “They are coming online.”

What sets the H-6N apart from earlier variants is that it’s the first bomber in the Chinese warplane inventory that can be refueled while in flight.

“This is important because if you want to have a strategic strike capability, you have to have strategic range associated with that, and [the H-6N] is designed specifically to deliver a nuclear payload,” the official said.

The Chinese nuclear bomber force is being built along lines similar to those used by the Soviet and now Russian nuclear bomber force, the official said. The number of deployed H-6Ns is unknown as the Chinese government does not disclose the size of its nuclear forces. The Arms Control Association estimates there are about 20 H-6Ns. Other assessments from 2023 state that the total number of H-6 bombers of all variants is around 150, with a projected expansion to around 250 bombers by 2035.

The H-6N has a range of 3,728 miles and can be armed with an air-launched ballistic missile with a range of 1,864 miles for a combined nuclear strike range of 5,592 miles.

China did not use the new H-6N variant during a provocative aerial incursion near Alaska last summer. Two H-6K maritime bombers along with two Russian Tu-95 Bear nuclear-capable bombers conducted an operation in international airspace July 24, penetrating the Alaska air defense identification zone and prompting the deployment of U.S. F-35 and F-16 jets and Canadian CF-18 fighters to intercept them.

It was the first time Chinese and Russian bombers operated together and highlights the potential for nuclear war fighting cooperation under the 2022 “no limits” agreement.

“Both the Chinese and Russian bombers involved in the patrol were nuclear-capable, a signal that corresponds with the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear forces and persistent Russian nuclear saber-rattling,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report on the joint bomber patrol.

Both H-6 variants are based on the Soviet Tu-16 heavy bomber, dubbed the “Badger” by NATO and first flown in 1952. Analysts say the Chinese probably flew H-6Ks rather than the newer H-6N near Alaska to avoid showing off the strategic bomber to U.S. intelligence assets.

China’s Defense Ministry described the July operation as a “joint strategic aerial patrol in the relevant airspace of the Bering Sea,” an indication it was intended to send a message of joint nuclear cooperation.

The Pentagon’s annual report on the Chinese military, published in December, said the PLA enhanced the effectiveness of the H-6 despite its age. Both variants can fire long range cruise precision missiles capable of hitting ships near Chinese coasts from airfields in China, while the H-6K can carry six supersonic long-range YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missiles.

“The H-6N features a modified fuselage, enabling it to carry an air-launched ballistic missile externally that may be nuclear-capable,” the report said. “In 2020, the PLA [air force] operationally fielded the H-6N bomber, providing a platform for the air component of the PRC’s nascent nuclear triad.”

A new H-20 stealth strategic bomber is on the drawing board, the report said.

“Beijing has established a nascent air leg of a nuclear triad with the H-6N bomber, which is capable of both aerial-refueling and carrying a nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile,” the Defense Intelligence Agency stated in a recent report.

U.S. Navy sends destroyer, survey ship through Taiwan Strait
The Navy deployed two warships through the Taiwan Strait this week, the first time the near-monthly show of force was carried out under the new Trump administration. Indo-Pacific Command spokesman Cmdr. Matthew Comer said the guided missile destroyer USS Ralph Johnson and survey ship USNS Bowditch made a routine passage from Monday to Wednesday.

China claims the Strait as its maritime territory, an assertion rejected by the U.S., Taiwan and other nations.

“Ships transit between the East China Sea and the South China Sea via the Taiwan Strait and have done so for many years,” Comdr. Comer said. “The transit occurred through a corridor in the Taiwan Strait that is beyond any coastal state’s territorial seas.”

The path taken by the ships is international waters where all nations have high-seas freedom of navigation, overflight and other uses, he added.

China’s military denounced the warship passage. A spokesman said naval and air forces were dispatched to monitoring the unusually long three-day transit, noting it was the first passage by a U.S. survey ship.

PLA Sr. Capt. Li Xi told reporters in Beijing the action by the American Navy sent the wrong signals and increased security risks.

The warship activity was the first announced transit by the survey ship. Those ships are capable of monitoring undersea features and gathering data useful for submarine and anti-submarine warfare operations.

The Indo-Pacific Command has said it plans to use thousands of drones — both aerial and underwater — during a future defense against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

The Bowditch has a long history of operations in the region. It was harassed by Chinese warships and aircraft in 2001 and 2002 in the Yellow Sea and was rammed by a Chinese fishing vessel in 2003. In 2016, one of the Bowditch’s underwater sensor drones was seized by the Chinese navy in the South China Sea and later returned.

China’s pressure campaign on Taiwan
China is engaged in a large-scale, whole-of-government campaign to use its military to pressure the self-ruling island of Taiwan to capitulate or face a future invasion, according to defense officials.

Chinese military forces — army, navy, air force, and space — are getting ready for military operations against Taiwan but ultimately hope to pressure the island democracy into capitulating to Beijing’s demand for annexation, said officials who briefed Inside the Ring on background.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for military action against Taiwan by 2030, Current military forces are not ready for attacks but a making steady progress toward having the capabilities.

An immediate invasion, blockade or other military action also can’t be ruled out.

“I don’t think there’s anything that would stop Xi Jinping today from launching an invasion if forced to do so,” one official said. “If [Taiwan President Lai [Ching-te] somehow got out of bed tomorrow morning and formally declared independence and a political break and basically jumped over the red lines that the Chinese have drawn, they’re not going to let that stand unopposed,” the official said.

“It doesn’t necessarily mean invasion, but it probably means some sort of military action, even though China probably doesn’t believe they’re ready to do it.”

China’s military has been engaged in a decades-long buildup of all its forces, with an emphasis on preparing for fighting Taiwan, the U.S. and other regional states over the island.

The official noted the military readiness doesn’t always limit threats. The U.S. was not ready for World War II after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor.

Chinese political and military leaders may not yet be prepared for conflict, but could decide to attack Taiwan in any case. The official said the PLA has not yet mastered multiservice warfare operations and as a result has leadership shortfalls, especially in small units.

A major shortcoming is the PLA dual command system that gives Chinese Communist Party commissars and military leaders equal authority.

However, war fighting abilities may not be hampered by the CCP system that has been in place since 1949.

Another factor raising concerns among intelligence officials is that China so far appears unaffected by the Russian military difficulties in Ukraine.

PLA leaders “have not walked away with the conclusion that use of force for a territorial or sovereignty issues is a bad idea,” the official said. “They’ve not given any indication that they’re backing away from any potential use of force options in the way that you might think they could have — no slowdown, no change, no change in articulation of military force as an option.”

China also is 100% committed to a peaceful unification of Taiwan, if available. And the extensive exercises and building up of viable military capabilities to strike Taiwan by force also remains a “coercive option” in bringing Taiwan to heel, the official said.

The current Chinese pressure campaign against Taiwan to do just that involves four objectives, the official said.

The goals include using large military drills as practice for attacks and wearing down the Taiwan military, with such tactics as large ship and aircraft sorties that have been underway near the island for two years. The third goal is upsetting the fragile status quo between the mainland and island by PLA forces crossing the median line down the Taiwan Strait. The Coast Guard also has stepped up threats to outlying Taiwan islands close to the mainland.

“The status quo is not what it used to be, absolutely,” the official said.

Fourth is an aggressive strategic messaging campaign with threats against Taiwan, including warnings that moving toward independence will be crushed brutally and that the PLA is prepared to do just that.

Within that campaign is a subnarrative that states the rest of the world will not defend Taiwan, something the official said is false, but still resonating in propaganda.

  • Contact Bill Gertz on X via @BillGertz.



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